Tunisian growth in 2026: which sectors are really driving the economy?

With GDP growth of 2.4% in the first half of 2026, the Tunisian economy is expanding in real terms, but that headline figure hides very different realities from one sector to another. Some sectors are clearly pulling activity forward, others are holding it back, and others are recovering after a difficult start to the year. For an investor, a business owner or a foreign group considering setting up in Tunisia, the question is therefore not only whether the country is growing, but where that growth comes from, which sectors are promising and which legal precautions are needed before investing. This article offers a sector-by-sector reading of the main 2026 figures (National Institute of Statistics and communications from the Presidency of the Republic), together with an analysis of what they mean for investors. 1. The overall picture: 2.4% growth in the first half In the first half of 2026, Tunisian GDP grew by 2.4% year on year. However, momentum eased slightly from one quarter to the next: - first quarter 2026: +2.6%; - second quarter 2026: +2.3%. This growth remains positive and is better than mere stagnation. But it comes with a slight slowdown between the two quarters, which is largely explained by the contrasting performance of different sectors of the economy. To understand the real situation, it is therefore necessary to look beyond the headline figure and analyse the contribution of each sector. 2. Services: the leading growth engine The services sector grew by 1.9% and contributed 1.18 points to GDP growth. This is by far the largest contribution. Services make up the largest share of the Tunisian economy and on their own account for more than half of the observed growth. Several branches stand out: - Tourism and hospitality: +4.6%. This is one of the most dynamic branches of the economy, driven by tourist arrivals, catering and accommodation. - Information and communication technologies (ICT): +3.5%. Digital, IT services, telecommunications and service outsourcing confirm their role as a sector for the future. - Transport: +1.7%. This branch is growing more moderately, but it remains essential to tourism, trade and exports alike. For an investor, these figures confirm that Tunisia remains a services and hospitality market, with strong appeal in tourism, digital and offshoring. 3. Agriculture: the second engine, with a catch-up effect Agriculture grew by 5.5% in the second quarter of 2026, after an increase of 6.8% in the first quarter. Its contribution to growth reaches 0.51 points. These high rates should be read with caution. The agricultural sector is very sensitive to rainfall, yields and climatic conditions. After difficult seasons, better yields mechanically produce a strong statistical rebound. Even so, agriculture is now the country's second growth engine, and its effects extend to the agri-food industry, exports (olive oil, dates, seafood) and rural incomes. For an investor, agriculture and agri-food represent a significant field of opportunity, but they require a specific legal analysis: the regime applicable to agricultural land, access to water, health and sanitary compliance, and export conditions. 4. Manufacturing: a clear slowdown Manufacturing grew by only 0.9% in the second quarter of 2026, compared with +3.1% in the first quarter. This is one of the warning signals of the period. The industrial slowdown is notable, all the more so because manufacturing is a pillar of Tunisian employment and exports. The breakdown by branch shows contrasting situations: - agri-food industries: +2.1%; - mechanical and electrical industries: +1.6%; - other manufacturing industries: +3.7%. These figures indicate that the industrial base continues to produce and export, but that the pace of growth has weakened markedly compared with the start of the year. They also show that the overall result masks significant differences between branches. For industrial investors, in particular European ones, Tunisia retains its traditional strengths: geographic proximity, skills, costs, and know-how in subcontracting, automotive, aerospace and electrical engineering. But the slowdown calls for a careful review of each branch, each value chain and each potential partner. 5. Energy, mining and water: a sector in decline The sector grouping energy, mining and water fell by 1.7%. Two components weigh particularly heavily: - mining industry: -9.6%; - oil and gas: -1.1%. The decline in mining is especially marked. It illustrates the persistent difficulties of certain extractive industries, whether in production, logistics or external demand. The fall in oil and gas reflects the structural decline in national hydrocarbon production, which contributes to the country's energy dependence. For an investor, this sector illustrates both a weakness and a potential: the decline in traditional production strengthens the case for projects linked to the energy transition, renewable energy and energy efficiency, subject to the applicable regulatory framework. 6. Construction: a rebound after a very negative first quarter The construction sector grew by 3.6% in the second quarter of 2026, after a 7.1% decline in the first quarter. This reversal is important. It shows that building and public works activity picked up after a very difficult start to the year. But caution is needed: a strong rebound after a sharp fall does not necessarily mean that the sector has durably returned to a solid trajectory. The volatility of the figures also reflects the uncertainties of construction sites, financing, materials and public procurement. For investors, the construction and real estate sector calls for particular vigilance: land status, building permits, financing, construction contracts and guarantees. 7. Foreign trade: a deficit that remains a point of fragility Over the first seven months of 2026, Tunisian exports reached 40.6 billion dinars, compared with 55.6 billion dinars of imports. The trade deficit therefore stands at around 15 billion dinars, and the import coverage ratio (exports as a share of imports) is about 73%. This imbalance remains one of the main weaknesses of the Tunisian economy. It reflects the country's dependence on certain strategic imports (energy, intermediate goods, capital goods, food products) and the need to strengthen export capacity. For investors, this context highlights the appeal of export-oriented projects, import substitution and local value creation. 8. Summary reading: who is pulling, who is holding back? To summarise the state of the Tunisian economy in 2026, three groups of sectors can be distinguished. Sectors driving growth: - services (+1.9%, i.e. a 1.18-point contribution); - tourism and hospitality (+4.6%); - ICT (+3.5%); - agriculture (+5.5% in Q2 after +6.8% in Q1, i.e. a 0.51-point contribution). Sectors that are slowing or recovering in a still fragile way: - manufacturing (+0.9% in Q2 after +3.1% in Q1); - transport (+1.7%); - construction (+3.6% in Q2 after -7.1% in Q1). Sectors holding growth back: - energy, mining and water (-1.7%); - the mining industry (-9.6%); - oil and gas (-1.1%). 9. What potential for investors? A sector-by-sector reading The list below gives an indicative assessment of investment potential by sector, based on the trends observed in 2026. It is a qualitative reading by ANILF, not an economic forecast: the real potential of a project always depends on its business model, its location and its legal framework. Tourism and hospitality - Momentum: +4.6% - Investment potential: ★★★★★ - Points of attention: operating authorisations, land, hotel management contracts, financing, seasonal employment. Information and communication technologies - Momentum: +3.5% - Investment potential: ★★★★★ - Points of attention: personal data protection, intellectual property, service contracts, regime for service exports, start-up status. Agriculture and agri-food - Momentum: +5.5% (Q2); agri-food industries +2.1% - Investment potential: ★★★★☆ - Points of attention: agricultural land regime, access to water, health standards, export conditions, supply-chain contracts. Mechanical and electrical industries - Momentum: +1.6% - Investment potential: ★★★★☆ - Points of attention: onshore/offshore regime, subcontracting contracts, customs law, employment law, industrial location. Transport and logistics - Momentum: +1.7% - Investment potential: ★★★☆☆ - Points of attention: licences and authorisations, customs regime, transport contracts, insurance. Construction and real estate - Momentum: +3.6% (Q2) after -7.1% (Q1) - Investment potential: ★★★☆☆ - Points of attention: land titles, building permits, construction contracts, guarantees, financing. Energy, mining and water - Momentum: -1.7%; mining -9.6%; oil and gas -1.1% - Investment potential: ★★☆☆☆ for traditional segments; higher potential for renewable energy, subject to the regulatory framework. - Points of attention: concessions, authorisations, production regime, power purchase agreements, environmental compliance. 10. What these figures mean for the law: investors' legal needs Sector growth is only ever a starting point. An investor who decides to set up or take over a business must secure the project legally. Depending on the sector, the most frequent needs are the following: - Choice of structure: company under Tunisian law, branch, subsidiary, joint venture, holding company. The choice depends on the activity, financing, taxation and the level of control sought. - Investment regime: analysis of the framework applicable to foreign investment, any sector restrictions, available incentives and benefits, and formalities to be completed. - Authorisations and licences: many activities (tourism, transport, health, energy, regulated activities) require prior authorisations, the conditions of which must be checked before committing funds. - Land and real estate: title deeds, leases, the regime for agricultural and industrial land, building permits, mortgages. - Onshore / offshore regime and exports: choosing the regime depending on whether the company is oriented towards the local market or exports, customs regime and foreign exchange formalities. - Commercial contracts: distribution, subcontracting, franchise, supply and service agreements, with particular attention to termination, exclusivity and dispute resolution clauses. - Employment and social law: employment contracts, status of managers, expatriates, social security obligations, restructurings. - Tax: corporate tax, VAT, withholding taxes, tax treaties, lawful tax planning. - Intellectual property and data: trademarks, patents, software, personal data protection, especially for digital businesses. - Company acquisitions: legal due diligence, share deal or asset deal, asset and liability warranties, conditions precedent. - Financing and security: loan agreements, security interests, shareholders' agreements, exit mechanisms. These needs vary from one sector to another. A hotelier, a software company, an agri-food exporter and a mechanical manufacturer do not face the same legal issues, and a tailored analysis is almost always necessary. 11. Key takeaways - Tunisian growth stands at 2.4% in the first half of 2026 (+2.6% in the first quarter, +2.3% in the second). - Services are the main engine: +1.9% and a 1.18-point contribution, led by tourism and hospitality (+4.6%) and ICT (+3.5%), with transport growing more moderately (+1.7%). - Agriculture is the second engine: +5.5% in the second quarter after +6.8% in the first, a 0.51-point contribution, with a catch-up effect linked to production conditions. - Manufacturing is slowing markedly: +0.9% in the second quarter against +3.1% in the first, with contrasting trends by branch (agri-food +2.1%, mechanical and electrical +1.6%, other industries +3.7%). - Energy, mining and water fell by 1.7%, driven by the mining industry (-9.6%) and oil and gas (-1.1%). - Construction rebounded (+3.6% in the second quarter) after a sharp fall in the first (-7.1%). - Foreign trade remains imbalanced: 40.6 billion dinars of exports against 55.6 billion dinars of imports over the first seven months of 2026. - For investors, the most promising sectors today are tourism, digital, agriculture and agri-food, but each project requires a specific legal and tax analysis. 12. Investing in Tunisia with ANILF's support Choosing a sector is an economic decision. Implementing it is a legal decision. ANILF assists Tunisian and international investors at every stage of their project in Tunisia. Our support may notably cover: - analysis of the legal framework applicable to your sector; - choice of structure and company incorporation; - investment regime and incentives; - authorisations, licences and regulatory compliance; - commercial, distribution and subcontracting contracts; - land, leases and real estate transactions; - employment law and the status of managers; - investment taxation; - intellectual property and data protection; - acquisitions, due diligence and warranties; - shareholders' agreements and growth transactions. Are you considering investing or developing your business in Tunisia? Before committing funds, have the legal structure best suited to your sector, the necessary authorisations and the risks specific to your project analysed. Conclusion Tunisian growth in 2026 is real, but it is neither homogeneous nor uniform. It rests first on services, in particular tourism and digital, and on a rebounding agriculture. It is held back by an industrial slowdown, a decline in extractive activities and a trade deficit that remains high. For an investor, reading the headline figures is therefore not enough. It is necessary to understand which sectors truly create value, which risks accompany each activity and which legal framework applies. An effective investment strategy in Tunisia therefore rests on three elements: choosing the right sector, structuring the investment properly in legal terms, and having local support able to secure the transaction before it is committed. Note: the figures cited come from official sources and may be revised in later publications. This article is for general information purposes and does not constitute personalised legal, tax or investment advice. Sources - National Institute of Statistics (INS): quarterly national accounts and economic notes, 2026; - Presidency of the Tunisian Republic: official communications on the economic situation and foreign trade in 2026.