Tunisia–Europe: what do the latest foreign trade trends reveal?

Trade between Tunisia and Europe remains the backbone of Tunisia's external economy. The latest foreign trade figures, published by the National Institute of Statistics (INS) for the first seven months of 2026, confirm this, but they also reveal tensions: a widening trade deficit, imports growing faster than exports, and significant gaps between sectors and partners. For a European investor, an exporter, an importer or a group considering setting up in Tunisia, these figures are not mere statistics. They show where the opportunities lie, which sectors are fragile and which legal precautions are needed before structuring a presence in Tunisia. This article offers a reading of the main trends in Tunisian foreign trade at the end of July 2026, with a focus on the relationship with the European Union (EU). 1. The overall picture: trade is up, the deficit is widening Over the first seven months of 2026, Tunisian foreign trade shows the following results: - exports: TND 40.64 billion, up 9.9% compared with the same period of 2025 (TND 36.97 billion); - imports: TND 55.60 billion, up 13.7% compared with the same period of 2025 (TND 48.88 billion); - trade deficit: about TND 14.96 billion, compared with about TND 11.90 billion a year earlier. Exports are therefore growing steadily, but imports are growing even faster. The result is a trade deficit that has widened by about TND 3 billion in one year, and an export-to-import coverage ratio of about 73%. This imbalance is not new, but it is getting worse. It weighs on foreign exchange reserves, on the dinar and on the financing of the economy. It also explains why export-oriented projects and local value creation remain particularly welcome. 2. Exports to Europe: an overwhelming weight The European Union remains by far the leading outlet for Tunisian products. Over the first seven months of 2026, Tunisian exports to the EU reached TND 28.63 billion, or 70.4% of the country's total exports. The main European partners are moving at different speeds: - France: +6.1%; - Italy: +8.7%; - Germany: +1.9%. These three countries remain Tunisia's main customers in Europe. The differences in pace are telling: Italy is growing markedly faster than France, while exports to Germany are growing only very modestly. For Tunisian companies and foreign investors alike, these figures confirm a strategic point: Tunisia is above all a production and export platform for the European market. This strong concentration is also a risk factor, because any slowdown in European demand feeds straight through to Tunisian exports. 3. Imports from Europe: a major supply partner Tunisian imports from the EU came to TND 25.16 billion over the first seven months of 2026, or 45.3% of total imports. The two main European suppliers recorded very sharp increases: - France: +18.4%; - Italy: +16.6%. These increases are well above that of overall imports (+13.7%). They reflect both the dependence of Tunisian industry on European inputs and equipment, and a pick-up in some purchases of production and consumer goods. For a European exporter, Tunisia therefore remains an important supply market. For an industrial company, it remains a production site integrated into European value chains, where a significant share of inputs is itself imported from Europe. 4. Which sectors are rising, which are falling? The sector breakdown of trade shows very different trajectories. On the export side: - Textiles and clothing: -3.6%. The sector, traditionally oriented towards Europe, is declining. It faces competition from other producing countries, price pressure from European buyers and changing demand. - Phosphates and derivatives: -11.9%. The decline is sharp and illustrates the persistent difficulties of the sector, whether in production, logistics or external demand. On the import side: - Energy: +35.7%. This is the strongest increase. It reflects the country's energy dependence and weighs heavily on the trade deficit. - Raw materials and semi-finished products: +8.9%. This growth is consistent with the recovery of industrial and export activity. - Capital goods: +7.2%. It indicates that companies continue to invest in their production tools, which is a positive signal for future capacity. These figures show two realities: a traditional industrial base (textiles, phosphates) under pressure, and a deficit largely driven by energy. They underline the value of higher value-added projects, of diversifying export sectors and of renewable energy. 5. Europe, a structural partner of Tunisia Beyond the 2026 figures, Europe's place in the Tunisian economy is structural. In 2025, the EU accounted for: - 59.5% of Tunisia's total trade; - 73.2% of Tunisian exports; - 49.6% of Tunisian imports; - about 85% of the stock of foreign direct investment (FDI) in Tunisia, according to European Commission data. These proportions show that the Tunisia–Europe relationship is not only commercial. It is also industrial, financial and human: thousands of companies with European capital operate in Tunisia, in industry, services, tourism, distribution and digital. For a European investor, this means that Tunisia is not unknown territory: the framework exists, precedents are numerous and setup models have been tested. But it also means that competition among European investors is real, and that the quality of the legal structuring makes the difference. 6. How to set up? The main models Depending on its sector, budget and desired level of control, a European investor can choose from several models: - Direct setup: creation of a company under Tunisian law (SARL, SA) or a branch, wholly owned by the investor where the sector allows. This is the model that offers the most control, but also requires the most commitment. - Joint venture: partnership with a Tunisian partner, who brings market knowledge, networks and sometimes assets. The shareholders' agreement is then decisive: governance, majority, veto rights, exit. - Subcontracting: entrusting all or part of production to an existing Tunisian company, without investing directly. This is the lightest model, but it requires a solid contract (quality, deadlines, intellectual property, confidentiality, liability). - Acquisition: purchase of an existing Tunisian company (share deal) or some of its assets (asset deal). It provides quick access to a business, customers and teams, but requires rigorous due diligence. The right choice depends on the objective: selling on the Tunisian market, producing for export, securing supply or developing a service activity. 7. Legal checklist before setting up or trading with Tunisia Before committing funds or signing a contract, the following points deserve systematic verification: - Choice of structure: company under Tunisian law, branch, subsidiary, joint venture. The choice depends on the activity, financing, taxation and the level of control sought. - Investment regime: framework applicable to foreign investment, any sector restrictions, available incentives and benefits, formalities to complete. - Onshore / offshore regime: the applicable regime depends on whether the company is oriented towards the local market or export, with consequences for taxation, customs and management. - Authorisations and licences: many activities (tourism, transport, health, energy, regulated activities) require prior authorisation. - Customs regime and origin of goods: customs duties, suspensive regimes, rules of origin, certificates and import/export formalities. - Foreign exchange and transfers: exchange rules applicable to non-resident investors, repatriation of profits and capital, foreign currency financing. - Commercial contracts: distribution, agency, subcontracting, supply, with particular attention to termination, exclusivity, payment and dispute resolution clauses (governing law, arbitration). - Labour and social law: employment contracts, status of managers and expatriates, social obligations, restructuring. - Taxation: corporate tax, VAT, withholding taxes, double taxation treaties. - Intellectual property and data: trademarks, patents, know-how, personal data protection. - Land and real estate: title deeds, leases, regime for industrial and agricultural land. - Acquisition: legal due diligence, share deal or asset deal, asset and liability warranties, conditions precedent. - Financing and security: loan agreements, guarantees, shareholders' agreements, exit mechanisms. 8. Key figures to remember - Tunisian exports (first 7 months of 2026): TND 40.64 billion, +9.9% (versus TND 36.97 billion). - Tunisian imports: TND 55.60 billion, +13.7% (versus TND 48.88 billion). - Trade deficit: about TND 14.96 billion, versus about TND 11.90 billion a year earlier. - Exports to the EU: TND 28.63 billion, or 70.4% of the total; France +6.1%, Italy +8.7%, Germany +1.9%. - Imports from the EU: TND 25.16 billion, or 45.3% of the total; France +18.4%, Italy +16.6%. - Sectors: textiles -3.6%, phosphates -11.9%, energy imports +35.7%, raw materials +8.9%, capital goods +7.2%. - Weight of the EU in 2025: 59.5% of trade, 73.2% of exports, 49.6% of imports and about 85% of the FDI stock. 9. Setting up or trading with Tunisia with the support of ANILF Foreign trade figures shed light on the context. Carrying out a project, however, is a legal matter. ANILF supports European and international investors and companies in their projects in Tunisia. Our assistance can notably cover: - choice of structure and company incorporation; - investment regime, onshore / offshore status and incentives; - distribution, subcontracting and supply contracts; - joint ventures and shareholders' agreements; - acquisitions, due diligence and warranties; - customs regime, foreign exchange and investment taxation; - labour law and the status of managers; - intellectual property and data protection. Are you considering setting up in Tunisia or developing your trade with Europe from there? Before committing funds, have the structure best suited to your project and the risks specific to your sector analysed. Conclusion The latest foreign trade figures confirm that Europe remains Tunisia's central economic partner: 70.4% of Tunisian exports go to the EU, which also supplies 45.3% of imports and accounts for about 85% of the stock of foreign direct investment. But they also call for realism. The trade deficit is widening (about TND 14.96 billion), energy weighs heavily (+35.7% in imports), and historic sectors such as textiles (-3.6%) and phosphates (-11.9%) are declining. Conversely, the growth in imports of capital goods (+7.2%) and raw materials (+8.9%) shows that the productive base continues to equip itself and to produce. For a European investor, the challenge is therefore to choose the right sector, the right setup model and the right legal structuring. In a relationship as dense as the one linking Tunisia and Europe, the difference is often made by the quality of legal preparation and by local support capable of securing the transaction before it is committed. Note: the figures cited come from official sources, as of 2 September 2026, and may be revised in later publications. This article is for general information purposes and does not constitute personalised legal, tax or investment advice. Sources - National Institute of Statistics (INS): foreign trade indicators, situation at the end of July 2026; - European Commission: data on trade relations and investment between the EU and Tunisia; - data as of 2 September 2026.