Tunisia–Africa–Middle East: what opportunities for companies in regional value chains in 2026?

Can Tunisia become a support base for companies seeking to develop their activities between Europe, Africa and the Gulf countries? In 2026, this question is growing in importance for industrial groups, exporters, investors and service companies. Its proximity to Europe, its export-oriented industrial fabric and its commercial links with several African markets enable it to take part in value chains that extend beyond national borders. Opportunities concern in particular automotive and aeronautical components, agri-food, digital services, healthcare, renewable energy and infrastructure. But regional development does not rest solely on commercial potential. It also requires appropriate legal structuring, mastery of contractual risks, knowledge of customs and tax rules, and effective organisation of cross-border partnerships. 1. Tunisian trade in 2026: key figures The latest available data from the National Institute of Statistics (INS), published on 12 October 2026, make it possible to measure the dynamics of Tunisian foreign trade. Main indicators for the first nine months of 2026: - 50.4 billion dinars of exports, compared with 46.42 billion over the same period of 2025, i.e. growth of 8.6%. - 71.4 billion dinars of imports, up 13.1%. - 20.997 billion dinars of trade deficit. - 70.6% coverage ratio of imports by exports. - 70.2% of exports destined for the European Union, i.e. 35.39 billion dinars. These figures show that European markets remain essential for Tunisian companies. They also underline the interest of diversifying commercial outlets and developing regional partnerships capable of reducing dependence on a limited number of markets. Source: National Institute of Statistics — Foreign trade, September 2026. A sectoral dynamic to watch Over the first nine months of 2026, Tunisian exports notably grew in the following sectors: - Mechanical and electrical industries: +9.9%. - Agricultural and food products: +20.3%. - Energy: +43.1%. Conversely, exports of textiles, clothing and leather fell by 4.7%, while those of phosphates and derivatives decreased by 16.5%. These trends do not guarantee the future performance of each company. They nevertheless provide useful indications for identifying sectors to examine as part of a regional expansion strategy. 2. Why can Tunisia play a role between Europe, Africa and the Gulf? Tunisia's position allows it to envisage several development models: producing locally for export, supplying components to foreign industrials, distributing products on neighbouring markets, or taking part in regional investment projects. Europe: an industrial and commercial anchor Relations with the European Union occupy a central place in the Tunisian economy. Companies established in Tunisia can notably take part in production chains in which components, raw materials and finished products circulate between several countries. Electrical and mechanical industries, automotive components, aeronautics, technical textiles and certain specialised services offer possibilities for industrial cooperation. For European companies, partnership with a Tunisian player can meet objectives of supply diversification, geographical proximity and access to technical skills. The success of these operations nevertheless depends on supplier quality, applicable rules of origin, compliance requirements and the securing of production or subcontracting contracts. Africa: diversifying markets and partnerships African markets constitute another development axis for Tunisian companies. Opportunities may concern the export of industrial products, equipment, digital solutions, professional services, agri-food, healthcare and infrastructure projects. In June 2026, the Secretary-General of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) underlined the potential for diversifying Tunisian exports towards African markets, highlighting the country's commercial relations with Europe and its participation in the AfCFTA guided trade initiative. Source: TAP — Tunisia well placed to develop its exports in Africa, 12 June 2026. For companies, the challenge consists in identifying the markets where their offer is competitive, then choosing between direct export, local distribution, industrial partnership and the establishment of a commercial structure. AfCFTA can facilitate certain commercial operations, but its advantages must not be treated as automatic: rules of origin, tariffs actually applicable, customs formalities and market access conditions must be verified country by country. The Gulf countries: financing, partnerships and outlets Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar can be examined as development markets or as potential sources of financing and partnerships. Opportunities may notably concern: - Investments in infrastructure and energy. - Partnerships in agri-food and processing industries. - Digital projects and business services. - Investments in Tunisian companies or joint ventures. - Financing and delivery of industrial or real estate projects. It is nevertheless necessary to distinguish commercial prospects from investments actually made. Available figures alone do not allow one to affirm that all Gulf countries are experiencing a uniform increase in their trade or investments in Tunisia in 2026. For each market, a specific study must cover demand, distribution channels, access conditions, potential partners and payment terms. 3. Which regional value chains offer prospects for companies? Possibilities depend on the sector, the technical level of the offer and the company's capacity to meet its partners' requirements. Automotive, electrical and aeronautical industries Tunisia has an industrial fabric integrated into several international production chains. Automotive components, electrical wiring, mechanical parts and aeronautical activities can support partnerships with European principals and, depending on the projects, with other markets. Companies may seek to develop manufacturing contracts, long-term supply agreements, design activities or technology-transfer partnerships. The main legal challenge consists in framing technical specifications, deadlines, quality, liability in the event of defect, intellectual property and continuity of supply. Agri-food and processing Regional demand can open prospects for Tunisian producers, processors and exporters, notably in vegetable oils, processed food products and certain agricultural sectors. Projects must nevertheless take account of sanitary requirements, traceability, labelling, applicable standards and conservation and transport conditions. For Gulf and African markets, import requirements must be studied according to the product and the country of destination. Renewable energy and infrastructure The development of energy and infrastructure projects can create needs for equipment, engineering, maintenance, technical services and financing. Tunisian companies can act as suppliers, subcontractors, industrial partners or specialised service providers. Investors, for their part, can examine projects requiring consortium agreements, construction contracts, operating contracts or structured financing. These operations presuppose a prior analysis of authorisations, regulatory risks, environmental obligations, contractual guarantees and dispute-resolution mechanisms. Digital and professional services IT services, software development, engineering, consulting and certain outsourced services can also fit into regional value chains. Their development notably requires particular attention to confidentiality, data protection, intellectual property rights, data-transfer conditions and contractual liability. 4. How to structure a regional partnership legally? A commercial opportunity becomes a lasting project only if the relations between the partners are clearly defined. Choosing the right structure Depending on the nature of the project, companies may favour: - An export or supply contract. - A distribution or commercial agency contract. - An industrial subcontracting agreement. - A joint venture with a local partner. - An equity stake or an acquisition. - A consortium to respond to a tender. - A dedicated structure for an investment project. The choice depends notably on the level of control sought, financing needs, the risks borne by each partner and exit conditions. Securing cross-border contracts Contracts must specify delivery obligations, payment terms, guarantees, liability, termination conditions and the consequences of a breach. They must also address the applicable law, the competent jurisdiction or recourse to arbitration, as well as the modalities for enforcing decisions or awards in the countries concerned. In operations involving several jurisdictions, a poorly adapted contractual clause can considerably complicate the resolution of a dispute. Checking regulatory compliance Regional expansion may involve controls linked to foreign investment, foreign exchange, customs, taxation, competition, anti-corruption and international sanctions. Obligations vary according to the countries, sectors and parties to the operation. A prior verification makes it possible to determine the necessary authorisations and any restrictions before signature. Protecting payments and investments The risk of non-payment, currency fluctuations, transfer delays and enforcement difficulties must be integrated into the negotiation. Depending on the project, the parties may study bank guarantees, documentary credits, payment-securing mechanisms, credit insurance or adapted contractual guarantees. The objective is to allocate risks coherently rather than leaving them to be borne by a single partner. 5. The main risks to anticipate in 2026 Regional development presents opportunities, but also risks that must be assessed before any financial commitment. Commercial risk: insufficient demand, dependence on a distributor or concentration of sales on a single market. Contractual risk: imprecise obligations, absence of adapted guarantees or enforcement difficulties. Regulatory risk: missing authorisations, customs formalities, sectoral restrictions or poorly interpreted rules of origin. Financial risk: payment delays, exchange risk, financing costs and difficulties in repatriating funds under the applicable regulations. Partner-related risk: insufficient financial capacity, prior disputes, compliance problems or inadequate governance. A prior analysis must combine market study, partner verification, contract analysis and examination of the legal framework applicable in each country. 6. Foreign investment figures: an indicator of Tunisian potential According to data communicated by the Foreign Investment Promotion Agency (FIPA) and reported by the TAP agency in March 2026, international investments in Tunisia reached approximately 3.572 billion dinars in 2025, up 30.3% compared with 2024. Foreign direct investment represented approximately 3.507 billion dinars. Excluding energy, FDI flows were associated with 921 investment operations, for an amount of 2.936 billion dinars and 14,085 announced jobs. These results constitute an indicator of investment activity in Tunisia, but they must not be interpreted as a direct measure of investments coming exclusively from Africa or the Gulf countries. Source: TAP — International investments in Tunisia in 2025, data presented in March 2026. For foreign investors, the next step consists in identifying sectoral opportunities, verifying establishment conditions and structuring operations in accordance with Tunisian law and the rules applicable in the other jurisdictions concerned. 7. What strategy for companies seeking to expand across these markets? A progressive approach makes it possible to limit risks and better target investments. Step 1 — Identify priority markets. Assess demand, competitors, logistics costs and access conditions for each country. Step 2 — Select the entry model. Compare direct export, distribution, subcontracting, joint venture and direct investment. Step 3 — Verify the partner. Examine its legal situation, financial capacity, authorisations and contractual commitments. Step 4 — Secure the operation. Prepare the contracts, guarantees, dispute-resolution clauses and compliance-control mechanisms. Step 5 — Organise follow-up. Provide for reporting obligations, performance indicators, modalities for revising agreements and exit conditions. This method is particularly important for companies contemplating significant investments, acquisitions or long-term industrial partnerships. Conclusion In 2026, relations between Tunisia, Africa, Europe and the Gulf countries can offer possibilities for commercial diversification, industrial cooperation and investment. Foreign-trade data show growth in Tunisian exports, while international investments recorded in 2025 confirm the importance of industrial projects and services. To turn these prospects into concrete operations, companies must nevertheless go beyond commercial analysis alone. The structuring of partnerships, verification of regulatory obligations and securing of contracts play a decisive role in the success of a cross-border expansion. How ANILF supports companies in their regional projects The ANILF firm assists Tunisian and international companies in their commercial and investment operations in Tunisia, taking into account the legal issues linked to cross-border partnerships. Its support may notably cover: - Legal structuring of partnerships, joint ventures and investments. - Drafting and negotiation of international commercial contracts. - Legal audits and verification of partners or target companies. - Company law, foreign investment and acquisition transactions. - Regulatory compliance and contractual risk management. - Prevention and handling of international commercial disputes. Are you considering developing your activities between Tunisia, Africa and the Gulf countries? ANILF can support you in analysing the applicable legal framework and securing your project, from partnership structuring through to contractual negotiation. Contact the firm to examine the legal issues of your project and determine the verifications required before you commit.