Interest rates, inflation and financing: what consequences for Tunisian companies?

In 2026, the key interest rate of the Central Bank of Tunisia is held at 7%, following the cuts made in 2025. Inflation, for its part, remains close to 5%. These two figures, although seemingly technical, bear directly on the daily life of companies: cost of credit, cash position, capacity to invest, contract negotiation, company valuation and the country's attractiveness to foreign investors. For a manager, an investor or a foreign group present in or interested in Tunisia, the question is therefore not only whether rates have fallen, but what the current level of rates and inflation concretely changes for financing, contracts and growth transactions. This article offers an economic, financial and legal reading of the situation in 2026, with practical avenues for Tunisian companies and investors. 1. The context: a key rate of 7% and inflation close to 5% After a series of cuts in 2025, the Central Bank of Tunisia is holding its key rate at 7% in 2026. This reflects a cautious approach: monetary policy seeks to support activity gradually without reigniting price pressures. At the same time, inflation stands at around 5%. It has fallen significantly from the peaks of recent years, but it remains high enough to weigh on company costs, household purchasing power and the visibility of business plans. Two ideas should be kept in mind: - the cost of money has begun to ease, but it remains high for many companies, because the key rate is only the base on which banks set their own terms; - inflation, even when slowing, continues to alter the economic balance of contracts, budgets and valuations. 2. The impact on investment credit and treasury credit The level of the key rate feeds through to all bank financing, but not in the same way depending on the type of credit. Investment credit (acquiring equipment, expanding a plant, construction, a real estate or hotel project): - it runs over the long term, and the total cost of financing depends heavily on the rate, the duration and whether the pricing is fixed or variable; - a key rate held at 7% invites companies to weigh carefully whether to launch a project now or wait for a possible further easing; - the rate is not the only criterion: the guarantees required, early repayment conditions and review clauses matter as much as the nominal rate. Treasury credit (overdrafts, invoice advances, financing of the operating cycle): - it is generally shorter and more sensitive to the cost of money; - a strained cash position, combined with lengthening customer payment terms, can turn a simple financing need into a lasting difficulty; - systematic use of short-term credit to fund structural needs is a warning signal that should be addressed by restructuring the debt or the operating cycle. In both cases, the key is to compare the project's expected return with the real cost of the debt, including fees, commissions and guarantees. 3. SMEs: greater exposure Small and medium-sized enterprises are generally more exposed than large groups, for several reasons: - harder access to credit and less favourable terms than those granted to large companies; - sometimes heavy guarantee requirements, often resting on the manager's personal assets; - limited equity, and therefore a weaker capacity to absorb shocks; - greater dependence on bank credit, with few alternative sources of financing; - reduced bargaining power against suppliers, major customers and banks. For an SME, a rise in production costs driven by inflation, combined with expensive financing, can quickly squeeze margins and weaken cash flow. These companies therefore have an interest in anticipating: monitoring their cash indicators, talking early with their financial partners and structuring their commitments properly. 4. Financing an investment: a checklist before committing Before signing a financing agreement, the following points deserve to be checked: - The real need: amount, drawdown schedule, share of equity and share of debt. - The total cost: interest rate, commissions, arrangement fees, insurance, cost of guarantees, and not only the advertised rate. - The nature of the rate: fixed or variable, with review clauses and any caps. - The duration and repayment profile: grace period, constant amortisation or bullet repayment, fit with the project's cash flows. - The guarantees: mortgage, pledge over the business, pledge over equipment, personal or corporate guarantees, and their impact on future borrowing capacity. - Default and acceleration clauses: events of default, financial ratios, covenants, remedy periods. - Conditions precedent: documents, authorisations, capital contributions, insurance. - Early repayment and refinancing: penalties, possibility of renegotiating if rates fall. - The regulatory and tax framework: required authorisations, any benefits linked to the investment, tax treatment of interest. - The alternatives: leasing, crowdfunding, private equity, public or donor financing, shareholder loans. A legal analysis of the financing agreement before signature often helps avoid unbalanced clauses whose consequences only appear when difficulties arise. 5. Inflation and commercial contracts: the role of indexation Inflation alters the economic balance of long-term contracts. A price set today may become insufficient or excessive a few months later, depending on each party's position. The most exposed contracts are: - supply and procurement contracts; - subcontracting and service agreements; - commercial leases and equipment rental contracts; - works contracts and construction agreements; - maintenance, distribution and agency contracts. To limit these risks, several contractual mechanisms should be considered: - Indexation or price revision clauses, which link the price to a reference index (price index, raw material cost, sector index) with a clear formula. - Cap and floor clauses, which limit the scale of variations. - Renegotiation or hardship clauses, which require the parties to talk again when the balance of the contract is upset. - Term and renewal clauses, which avoid being locked into a price that has become unsuitable. - Penalty and payment clauses, which govern delays and late-payment interest. The choice of index, the revision frequency and the calculation method must be drafted precisely. An imprecise clause is a source of disputes. It is also necessary to check that the clause is compatible with the mandatory rules applicable to each type of contract. 6. The impact on mergers and acquisitions The level of interest rates and inflation directly influence company merger and acquisition transactions: - Valuation: a high cost of money reduces the present value of future cash flows and weighs on the prices offered. Persistent inflation also makes it harder to project results. - Acquisition financing: using debt, particularly for leveraged transactions, becomes more expensive, which may lead parties to favour equity contributions or deferred payments. - Price negotiation: buyers ask for more guarantees and adjustment mechanisms (earn-out clauses, price supplements, escrow). - Due diligence: analysis of the target's debt, bank covenants, guarantees granted and contract structure becomes even more decisive. - Deal structure: the choice between a share deal and an asset deal also depends on debt, ongoing contracts and taxation. - Asset and liability warranties: they must cover risks linked to financial commitments and to inflation-sensitive contracts. In a context of still-high rates, the best-prepared transactions are those whose financial structure, timetable and legal documentation were anticipated from the outset. 7. Foreign investors: exchange, transfers and legal certainty For a foreign investor, interest rates and inflation are added to other decisive parameters: the exchange rate, the ease of transferring capital, the regime applicable to foreign investment, taxation and the guarantees offered. The main points of attention are the following: - Exchange: the dinar's movement against reference currencies affects the profitability of an investment made in foreign currency. Flows, loans and dividends must be analysed taking this risk into account, with hedging mechanisms where possible. - Capital transfers: the possibility of repatriating dividends, sale proceeds or loan repayments depends on foreign exchange regulations and the formalities to be completed. These points must be checked before investing, not afterwards. - Rules applicable to foreign investment: open sectors, possible authorisations, sector restrictions, establishment formalities and available benefits. - Taxation: taxation of profits, withholding taxes on dividends, interest and royalties, tax treaties avoiding double taxation, treatment of loan interest. - Guarantees: protection of the investment, security interests, dispute resolution clauses (courts or arbitration), exit mechanisms. - Project financing: choice between equity contribution and shareholder loan, local financing or financing from abroad, with the regulatory and tax consequences of each option. The combination of these elements must be analysed from the project design phase, not at signing. 8. Attractive sectors in 2026 In an environment of still-high rates and moderate inflation, the most attractive sectors are those that combine solid demand, export capacity or revenues that depend little on local credit: - Information and communication technologies: IT services, outsourcing, software development and digital services, often exported, with relatively limited hardware investment needs. - Mechanical and electrical industries: industrial subcontracting, automotive, aerospace and components, benefiting from proximity to Europe and recognised know-how. - Agri-food: processing of agricultural products, with strong export potential (olive oil, dates, seafood). - Tourism: a dynamic sector, with financing, renovation and upgrading needs. - Exported services: service centres, consulting, engineering, shared services and services for foreign companies. - Renewable energy: solar and wind power generation and energy efficiency projects, within the applicable regulatory framework. - Infrastructure: transport, logistics, water, energy and public facilities projects, often carried out through partnerships or specific financing. For each of these sectors, the quality of the financial and legal structuring remains decisive: onshore or offshore regime, authorisations, supply or energy purchase contracts, guarantees, tax regime. 9. Strategies for companies: how to adapt Faced with a still-significant cost of financing and persistent inflation, several levers can strengthen a company's resilience: - Optimise debt: list all commitments, identify the most expensive loans, consider refinancing or renegotiating terms, and align the debt's maturity with the useful life of the financed asset. - Manage cash: monitor customer and supplier payment terms, put in place rolling cash forecasts, build safety margins and limit short-term credit for permanent needs. - Secure contracts: include indexation, price revision and renegotiation clauses in customer and supplier contracts, and ensure consistency between purchasing and selling terms. - Build scenarios: test the resilience of the business plan to changes in rates, inflation, exchange rates and payment terms. - Diversify sources of financing: bank credit, leasing, private equity, partners' contributions, financing dedicated to investment or exports, public or donor financing and, for groups, intra-group financing in compliance with regulations. - Strengthen equity: when the debt structure becomes too heavy, a capital increase or the entry of a partner may be more sustainable than a new loan. - Document properly: loan agreements, guarantees, shareholders' agreements and commercial contracts must be drafted precisely to avoid later disputes. 10. Legal needs linked to financing and inflation Changes in rates and prices create very concrete legal needs. Among the most frequent: - negotiation and review of credit, leasing and financing agreements; - creation, analysis and release of guarantees and security; - debt restructuring and renegotiation with financial institutions; - drafting of indexation, price revision and hardship clauses in commercial contracts; - structuring of capital contributions, shareholder loans and shareholders' current accounts; - acquisition transactions, due diligence, asset and liability warranties and price adjustment mechanisms; - structuring of foreign investment, foreign exchange and capital transfer formalities; - taxation of investment, interest, dividends and royalties; - resolution of contractual disputes linked to price or cost variations. 11. Key takeaways - The key rate of the Central Bank of Tunisia is held at 7% in 2026, after the cuts of 2025. - Inflation remains close to 5%, down but still high enough to weigh on costs and contracts. - The level of rates affects investment credit and treasury credit differently; in both cases, reasoning must be based on the total cost of financing. - SMEs are more exposed: harder access to credit, heavier guarantees, limited equity. - Before financing an investment, check the total cost, the nature of the rate, the guarantees, the default clauses and the early repayment options. - Inflation requires securing commercial contracts with indexation, cap and renegotiation clauses. - Rates and inflation influence valuation, financing and negotiation in mergers and acquisitions. - Foreign investors must analyse exchange, capital transfers, investment regulation, taxation and guarantees. - The most attractive sectors include ICT, mechanical and electrical industries, agri-food, tourism, exported services, renewable energy and infrastructure. - The best response combines debt optimisation, cash management, secured contracts, scenarios and diversification of financing sources. 12. Getting support from ANILF A financing is negotiated, a contract is drafted and a transaction is structured. Each of these stages involves economic choices, but also lasting legal and tax consequences. ANILF assists Tunisian companies and international investors in securing their financing and projects in Tunisia. Our support may notably cover: - review and negotiation of financing agreements and guarantees; - debt restructuring and renegotiation with banks; - drafting and securing commercial contracts (indexation, price revision, renegotiation); - mergers and acquisitions, due diligence and asset and liability warranties; - structuring of foreign investment, foreign exchange and capital transfers; - taxation of investment and financial flows; - shareholders' agreements, capital increases and growth transactions; - resolution of commercial and financial disputes. Are you preparing a financing, an investment or an acquisition in Tunisia? Before committing, have the real cost of financing, the guarantees requested and the legal soundness of your contracts analysed. Conclusion With a key rate of 7% and inflation close to 5%, the Tunisian financial environment in 2026 is less strained than before the 2025 cuts, but it remains demanding. The cost of credit, pressure on cash, the revision of contracts, company valuation and attractiveness to foreign investors depend on how each player analyses and manages these parameters. A purely economic reading is not enough. The financing decision must be informed by a financial analysis, which measures the cost and repayment capacity, and by a legal analysis, which secures the contracts, guarantees and structure of the transaction. It is the combination of these three perspectives, economic, financial and legal, that turns a constraining context into an opportunity. Note: the figures cited come from official sources and may be revised in later publications. This article is for general information purposes and does not constitute personalised legal, tax, financial or investment advice. Sources - Central Bank of Tunisia (BCT): monetary policy decisions and Board communiqués; - National Institute of Statistics (INS): consumer price indices and 2026 economic outlook notes.